The common theme of the fight between Errol Spence Jr. and Mikey Garcia is that Spence Jr. is simply too big and has too much strength for the smaller Garcia to handle. With Garcia jumping weight classes specifically to challenge Spence Jr., the title fight has been tabbed as a David vs Goliath type of showdown.
When one looks at Spence Jr.’s resume, it is easy to understand why the undersized Garcia is such and underdog. Spence Jr. has physically dominated the welterweight division up to this point and it is shocking to see an opponent push him past the 7th or 8th round. In fact, he has only made it to the 10th round on two occasions his entire career.
Errol Spence Jr. is a volume puncher and a power puncher. He aims for the body and he can land a series of lightning quick body blows so fierce that the fight can often end at that moment alone. Whenever his demoralizing body punches fail to deliver a knockout, they do a number on his opponent’s ability to last a whole fight. He has worn them down to the point that a future knockout is inevitable.
It will be next to impossible for Garcia to counter the overwhelming power of Spence Jr. Garcia might be a more skilled technical boxer than Spence Jr., but that will not save him from the tenacious attack to the body the champ will deliver.
Despite being overmatched in size and strength, Garcia does not hold a distinct advantage in overall speed in the ring. This goes for foot speed and hand speed. Garcia is incredible on the attack, but Spence Jr.’s ability to wear him down will prevent the challenger from landing many serious blows. Lacking an advantage in speed is a killer for Garcia since Spence Jr. already has the monstrous advantage in size and strength.
Perhaps the only question mark for Spence Jr. is his stamina in the ring. He has rarely been tested the distance and this is where Garcia must look for his opportunity to strike. Should the fight get to the 7th round or beyond, one must wonder how much Spence Jr. will have left in the tank. The only chance for the underdog to take the fight is to seize control at any moment where Spence Jr. leaves an opening. Garcia must make it that far in the fight to begin with.
Spence Jr. is a humungous favorite heading into the showdown with the multi-division champion. When analyzing the contest, it becomes clear that the physical attributes of Errol Spence Jr. are too great to overcome. Since Garcia does not have the typical fighting style of a smaller opponent, he will be overpowered within the first few rounds. If he manages to escape or counter the heaviest of Spence Jr.’s punches, will he be able to effectively return the favor?
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The likely answer is that he will not be able to and that is why the odds are simply too great in favor of the welterweight champ. Expect Errol Spence Jr. to retain his title. It will take one of boxing’s most shocking upsets to say otherwise.